The covariance of the backward and forward recurrence times in a renewal process: the stationary case and asymptotics for the ordinary case

In a Poisson process, it is well-known that the forward and backward recurrence times at a given time point t are independent random variables. In a renewal process, although the joint distribution of these quantities is known (asymptotically), it seems that very few results regarding their covariance function exist. In the present paper, we study this covariance and, in particular, we state both necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be positive, zero or negative in terms of reliability classifications and the coefficient of variation of the underlying inter-renewal and the associated equilibrium distribution. Our results apply either for an ordinary renewal process in the steady state or for a stationary process.     

The Eurasian Economic Union: Development Prospects and Possible Obstacles

This article analyzes the development prospects and problems for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It examines issues of integration within the EAEU, as well as interactions with other countries, both CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and non-CIS. The main problem of integration within the EAEU is the dominance of redistributive motives over productive ones. This article assesses the extent of Russian oil and gas transfers to EAEU partners and the impact of tax maneuvers on their size. It shows that the creation of mechanisms for redistributing profits within the EAEU will allow a positive economic effect to materialize from free trade agreements with non-CIS countries. The article assesses the risks for the EAEU related to Russia’s introduction of a unilateral ban on food imports from countries on the sanctions list and to the possible establishment of tariffs on trade with Ukraine.     

工业劳动力流动、资本创造与经济地理空间均衡

资本创造模型（CC模型）忽视了要素流动对产业空间分布的影响。而发展的新的资本创造模型则认为资本集聚的过程必然伴随着工业劳动力的流动过程。另外，是资本的实际收益而不是名义收益决定资本是否创造。研究结果表明，随着贸易自由度、工业品支出份额及资本贴现率的变大，替代弹性及资本折旧率的变小，将降低对称结构的稳定性，而提高中心-外围结构的稳定性；经济地理空间的产业均衡是集聚力和分散力相互作用的结果。当企业生产工业品的规模报酬递增程度足够显著，或者工业品支出份额很高时，市场拥挤效应将彻底消失，并转化成为促进产业集聚的动力；突破点与持续点的大小比较可以形成不同的关系，这意味着随着贸易自由度的变化，本文发展的资本创造模型可以体现出多样化的产业空间动态演化行为。     

考虑零售商质量控制和风险规避的供应链网络均衡研究

研究零售商质量控制和供应链成员风险规避背景下供应链网络均衡问题。应用条件风险值度量风险规避程度，利用变分不等式理论描绘供应链参与者的最优经济行为，设计供应链网络均衡模型，考虑风险规避和质量控制策略对均衡的影响，证明均衡解存在且唯一，并运用Levenberg-Marquardt算法求解均衡模型。最后对重要参数进行数值分析，揭示质量控制和风险规避对供应链均衡解以及参与者条件风险值的影响。研究表明：供应链参与者越规避风险越有利于产品质量水平的提高，风险规避程度的加深会降低制造商或零售商自身的CVaR，同时增大对方的CVaR，对因产品合格率提高带来的利益而言，制造商所得优于零售商。     

基于心智模型的恐怖主义袭击扩展式演化博弈分析

政府反恐措施与恐怖分子袭击手段存在着相互观察、适应性演化的过程。本文首先构建了政府作为先行动者、恐怖分子作为后行动者的斯塔克伯格博弈模型，进一步建立了恐怖袭击问题的扩展式演化博弈模型。由于扩展式演化博弈的均衡分析需要考虑代际内和代际间不同层次的信念学习，造成了演化分析的复杂性。本文将"心智模型"概念引入到演化博弈，采取了心智模型演化解的分析方法，得出了简化后的演化均衡解。最后，结合新疆墨玉县6.28暴恐事件进行算例分析，比较怀特流形演化解和心智模型演化解的差异。心智模型演化解的结果表明，根据恐怖分子群体中选择袭击比例是否高于临界值，政府策略收敛到防御或者不防御。该求解方法通过将普遍接受的社会规范引入到演化过程分析，不仅简化了怀特流形的分析过程，而且均衡解展示了更为丰富的、更为切合实际管理问题的演化特征。     

劣势耐用品厂商的产品质保期与质保服务投入策略研究

在实际中，消费者购买耐用品时均同时获得厂商提供的质保服务，由于产品质保服务影响着消费者的产品使用效用，因此耐用品定价、质保期和产品质保服务投入是影响厂商利润的主要因素。考虑双寡头市场环境下，建立微分博弈模型讨论单位产品质保服务投入和产品质保期对双寡头厂商均衡价格的影响。结论表明双寡头厂商的单位产品质保服务投入越高、质保期越长，均衡价格越高；但单位产品保服务投入与质保服务对消费者效用影响系数的关系影响着竞争对手在均衡价格的变化趋势；劣势的低质量厂商可以通过增加单位产品质保服务投入策略或延长质保期的策略实现在均衡下与高质量厂商以同等价格销售耐用品，但劣势厂商增加单位产品质保服务投入策略要优于延长质保期策略。最后，利用数值分析进一步验证了所得结论的有效性。     

自驾偏好、居民异质与居住选址——基于单中心城市模型的空间均衡分析

基于线性单中心城市模型，研究了自驾偏好和居民拥有车辆异质性对双方式交通走廊沿线居民出行方式选择和居住区位选址均衡的影响.将有车居民对自驾出行的偏好集成到直接效用函数中，建立了空间均衡模型.分析发现，当城市居民全部自驾出行时，租金-距离可能呈现先提高后降低的趋势.考虑只有部分居民拥有自驾车辆的一般情形，推导出了有车和无车居民在城市走廊沿线居住分布的不同均衡模式.通过理论解析，进一步考察了小汽车保有量和城市居民数量的变化对城市空间结构和居民效用水平的影响.     

产能有限的供应商主导的双渠道分销策略研究

在供应商产能有限的背景下,研究供应商的最优分配策略和双渠道分销的问题。根据期望利润最大化建立供应商渠道分配模型,依据纳什均衡确定供应商的最优定价、最优产能和最优分销策略。结果表明,在双渠道策略的情况下,供应商应该优先满足销售企业的销售量。若供应链的销售量恰好得到满足,供应商应该按最优产能生产。供应商的渠道选择与供应商产能、供应链各节点的盈利能力和生产成本有关。     

基于碳减排技术的竞争供应链投资均衡策略研究

本文以两条竞争供应链（每条供应链均包含一个制造商和一个零售商）为研究对象，基于其是否采用碳减排技术，构建了两条供应链均不采用碳减排技术（NN情景）、供应链1采用碳减排技术（AN情景），供应链2采用碳减排技术（NA情景），及两条供应链均采用碳减排技术（AA情景）的收益模型，求解出相应的最优解并探讨了竞争供应链投资碳减排技术的均衡策略。研究发现：当碳税较低时，AA情景是竞争供应链的均衡策略；当碳税适中时，生产成本较高的供应链不采用减排技术，而其竞争供应链将采用减排技术以提升竞争力；当碳税较高时，NN情景是竞争供应链的均衡策略。此外，当供应链间竞争强度较弱时，政府可适当提高碳税标准；当供应链间竞争较为激烈时，政府应降低碳税以引导企业采用碳减排技术。     

Competition and Coordination in Two‐Tier Public Service Systems under Government Fiscal Policy

As a result of government budgetary limits and rapid market growth, many public service systems—such as health care—are characterized by extensive customer wait times that have become a serious problem. This problem might be solved by allowing private firms to enter these markets, which would provide customers with a choice between a free (governmental) public service provider (SP) and a fee‐charging (or “toll”) private SP. In such a two‐tier service system, the two SPs are differentiated by service quality and cost efficiency. This study focuses on the competition and coordination issues for two‐tier service systems with customers who are sensitive to both service quality and delay. The free system attempts to maximize its expected total customer utility with limited capacity, whereas the toll system attempts to maximize its profit. Neither goal is aligned with the social welfare goal of the public service. To achieve the social welfare goal, the government plays a crucial role in coordinating the two‐tier service system via the budget, the tradeoff of social members' goals, and tax‐subsidy policies. Using a mixed duopoly game, we establish Nash equilibrium strategies and identify the conditions for the existence of the two‐tier service system. We employ several interesting and counter‐intuitive managerial insights generated by the model to show that the public service can be delivered more efficiently via customer choice and SP competition. In addition, we show that a relatively low tax‐subsidy rate can almost perfectly coordinate the two SPs to achieve most of the maximum possible benefit of the two‐tier service system.